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Spock – Global Markets — 24 Comments

  1. How long do you expect positions to be held before being sold or pared down? Also, about how many positions would you expect would typically be held at a given time?

    It is perfectly fair for you not to want to respond even vaguely since you do not know the future exactly–much less responding in terms of something like suspected median time of holding length +/quartiles. You may have a strong, fact-grounded basis, however, for being able to make an estimate. I can’t know.

    Absolutely fair as it is for you not to respond, it is thus also fair for me to ask. There are many reasons why I do not want to go in and out of many positions (I already have almost too many to keep track of and then there will be the tax reporting!)–all the more so in markets I do not know well. In the case of precious metal stocks, I have some sense of the companies as well as an inclination to hold aggressive positions for a long time. I am by inclination more a long-term speculator than a trader. I could give other reasons for not wanting to go in and out often even if I were somewhat likely to rake in the moohlah exponentially with somewhat low risk.

    • I plan to sit on this long portfolio, for the next 4 years, or longer. There will be adjustments and refinements along the way.

      Leaders will get hair cuts every now and then, to keep the weightings sensible. Funds from haircuts go into new positions, which have yet to run.

      By the time we get to 2020, this will be a six figure portfolio, up at least 500% on average.

      I have no doubts with what I say.

      • In case there is ambiguity, my question above about estimates about how long/how many positions was for the Global. For PMs I am **strongly** inclined to expect I’ll be holding these sorts of positions for at least several years years–possibly some of them even longer than you’d recommend. Rightly or wrongly, I have no problem with them as fairly long term positions. Consequently I expect to be delighted with the Spock PM miners service for a **long** time, checking daily and trading not very often.

        As for the other markets–I have no sense of them. Nor do I particularly want to be going in and out of them often. This psychology and background prompted my question above.

        Sorry for an individualistic question, but probably some others feel similarly.

  2. This is an awesome additional investing ‘theme’/’strategy’ for this service. I like it a lot.

    question: what are the color codes? green = long? red= short? yellow = ?


    proshares has a 2x long large-cap miner ETN: GDXX

    proshares has a 2x long Jr miner ETN: GDJJ

  3. I use two different ETFs for the PM miners and I was wondering what you think of them? I selected them after reviewing the holdings/% in many of the available Miner ETFs.

    Also, I ma thinking of holding 5-10% in each, in addition to individual PM Miners.

    GLDX for PM Gold Miners
    SILJ for PM Silver Miners

    As always, I REALLY appreciate my SPOCK subscription; it is helping me to buy on dips and hold for the long-haul

    • We have written on this subject before, so I will do some repeating. I really advise avoiding al ETFs. Especially now that we are in a bull market. As Spock has said these are the playthings of wall street, designed to separate you from your money. In the next illiquidity event expect them to trade down 30-50% below their intrinsic value for short periods of time. If you have a stop loss in you are toast.
      Next, think about what one is essentially announcing when one buys an ETF. He is saying, I have no ability to discriminate between crappy stocks and great companies so I will just take a basket of all of them and allow the losers to dilute my performance all in the name of “diversification and laziness. In addition, I will let the street skim me and make myself vulnerable to illiquid sell offs. Really now…we have all the tools here to differentiate between B- and A+ companies. Its called the Weinstein methodology which I resurrected from obscurity and introduced to the forum. Use it and prosper as it is “the holy grail” to investing in my humble opinion.

    • I agree with Plunger & Spock on the ETFs. They are a collection of stocks thrown in a basket, some good, some not so good.

      general comment on those 2 ETFs you mentioned:

      GLDX is the GLobalX Gold Explorers etf, companies engaged in early stage exploration for gold
      GDXJ is another etf that holds the Jr. gold mining companies
      and of course…
      GDX is the large cap gold miner etf

      SILJ is the Jr. silver miner etf
      SIL is a mid to large cap silver miner etf

  4. Dear Spock,
    IMHO there are some certainties in this enterprise:
    We’ll be dancing to your tune on the gold miners for some years.
    Our individual fortunes and funds available will wax and wane in this period.
    We share a passion and interest in protecting and nurturing our core gold miner positions.
    Your insights into other markets and opportunities – short and long term – can only benefit all those who board the enterprise: those with funds available; and those who are simply happy to learn.
    I wish you success with the Global Markets Matrix.

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